Goldman Lifts Gold Target to $5,400

Goldman Sachs has raised its end-2026 gold price forecast to $5,400 per ounce, up from an earlier estimate of $4,900, as buying from private investors and emerging market central banks continues to reshape the market.

In a note dated January 22, the brokerage said gold’s strong rally has effectively lifted the starting point for prices in 2026. Spot gold touched a fresh record high of $4,887.82 per ounce on Wednesday and is already up more than 11% this year, building on a stunning 64% surge in 2025.

According to Goldman, a key driver has been private sector diversification. These buyers are using gold as a hedge against global policy risks, and the bank does not expect them to unwind those positions anytime soon. Goldman’s higher forecast is based on this expectation, as it reduces the downside risk from large-scale selling next year.

Are Central Banks And ETFs Adding More Fuel?

Another key reason behind Goldman’s optimism is steady buying from central banks. The bank expects central banks to buy around 60 tonnes of gold in 2026, mainly from emerging market countries that are slowly shifting more of their reserves into gold.

This is not a new trend, but Goldman believes it still has room to continue, especially with ongoing worries about currency stability and geopolitical tensions.

Goldman also expects support from Western gold ETFs. As interest rate cuts come closer, ETFs could start increasing their gold holdings again. The bank expects the US Federal Reserve to cut rates by about 50 basis points in 2026, which usually helps assets like gold that do not offer interest income.

How Other Banks See Gold Prices In 2026

Goldman is not alone in expecting gold to stay strong, though its $5,400 call is among the most bullish. Commerzbank recently raised its end-of-2026 forecast to $4,900 per ounce, citing rising safe-haven demand.

Other major banks also see prices holding at elevated levels. Citi has lifted its short-term target to $5,000, while JP Morgan expects average prices to reach just over $5,000 per ounce by the fourth quarter of 2026. Bank of America and Societe Generale have also flagged $5,000 as a realistic level by the end of next year.

Despite strong demand, risks remain. Goldman warned that if investors suddenly become more comfortable about the long-term path of global monetary policy, some of the macro hedges built around uncertainty could be unwound. That kind of shift could put pressure on prices.

For now, though, with central banks buying, investors diversifying, and rate cuts on the horizon, the big question is not why gold is rising, but how close it can really get to that $5,400 mark by the end of 2026.

Sources

Reuters

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